Fucking Atos

[Barman]

Cheers for that Miss A.  You should see the grief I get on serious political forums for pointing out the awkward

Firstly Cameron is unlikely to get back in at the 2015 elections....

Secondly, my understanding is that the rules change in 2014 - this year - making it impossible to leave the EU without the consent of every other member... which is never likely to happen...

Cameron is obviously aware of this...

I think you're referring to the opt outs from various police and crime measures which we have to decide on by the end of May

I beleive Cameron is very aware, it's been in most of the papers.  Here's the official briefing

http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/eu-home-affairs-sub-committee-f-/inquiries/parliament-2010/protocol-36/

Protocol 36 of the Treaty of Lisbon allows the Government to decide, by 31 May 2014, whether the UK should continue to be bound by approximately 130 police and criminal justice (PCJ) measures, which would all become subject to the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union and the European Commission’s enforcement powers, or if it should exercise its right to opt-out of them all. Either scenario would then take effect from 1 December 2014. The Government has undertaken to organise a debate and a vote in each House before a decision is made.


The Government’s announcement by the Home Secretary on 9 July 2013 provided a list of the 35 measures that the Government would seek to rejoin should the opt-out be exercised. The announcement and the absence of this list of measures during the Committee’s original inquiry has prompted the decision to reopen the inquiry to further scrutinise these developments.

The right to leave the EU altogether was reintroduced in the Lisbon treaty and has no time limit.  The devil in the detail is the terms of exit are not defined, there is no requirement for the remaining EU to continue to trade at all with any exiting country.

As you say, Article 50 gives the theoretical right to leave but is ill-defined....

I thought there was another lock-out that comes into force this year tho - I'll have to look it up...

But tell me, do you think that (in the unlikely event) if Cameron gets re-elected in 2015 he will truly offer a free and fair referendum on the Brexit in 2017?

Given that he has already said that he will campaign for us to stay in, the other two party leaders feel the same way and the EU would pour billions into the 'stay' campaign...?

[Barman]

The Conservatives' EU referendum bill could fail in Parliament.

[Steve]

The Conservatives' EU referendum bill could fail in Parliament.

It's not THE Conservatives' Bill, it's A Conservative's private members bill which is why it may fail, and if it does the chances of Cameron winning in 2015 increase big time as he can paint labour and the Libs into a corner.  Cameron is prevented from making it a government bill with government time by the terms of the coalition agreement.  He has given it his full support.

So to your question "do you think that (in the unlikely event) if Cameron gets re-elected in 2015 he will truly offer a free and fair referendum on the Brexit in 2017?" then yes I believe he will make it a manifesto and if he wins (unlikely but possible) he would make it a Queen's speech commitment asap.  I trust his integrity but not always his judgment.

You suggest he wouldn't because he wants us to stay in the EU.  The evidence is he does not as the EU stands so where he campaigns will come down to how much change he can get.  We just don't know, he likely does not know either.  What would you expect him to do if come the day he believes it is best for the UK to stay in?